Silver linings: Mining opportunities for Africa in an unstable world

In the face of tariffs, immigration curbs, reduced development funding and growing nationalism, conventional wisdom suggests Africa faces strong geopolitical headwinds. However, the apparent disorder may also present a significant upside for the continent.

This emerged from a lively debate on the main stage on Day Two of Investing in African Mining Indaba, the largest mining event of its kind, currently underway in Cape Town.

The novel debate format saw two teams of mining opinion leaders offer competing views on the global geopolitical landscape. The light-hearted session highlighted many of the major issues facing the sector, operating under a “politician’s rule” that neither side necessarily meant—or even believed—everything they argued during the discussion.

Despite the levity, there was clear consensus that Africa is well positioned to benefit from its rich critical-minerals endowment in the emerging resource era. The main point of disagreement was whether the continent would be able to seize these opportunities through effective governance and deeper regional integration.

“Is Africa a winner in the current geopolitical disruption?” was the central question posed to the panel, in a debate moderated by Rohitesh Dhawan, President and CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM).

Power play

“Hope is not a strategy,” quipped Ronak Gopaldas, Director at Signal Risk and Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics. “Africa has aspirations to be a winner, but in reality, the continent is more vulnerable than a certain CEO at a Coldplay concert!”

Gopaldas said the world was re-entering an era of power politics, where influence, economic strength and military might would be decisive. Continuing the musical theme, he noted that “everybody wants to rule the world,” echoing the classic 1980s pop song.

“In that environment, we Africans will be rule-takers rather than rule-makers,” he said. “We can’t just be ‘living on a prayer’. Without collective bargaining and regional solidarity, we risk moving backwards.”

Taking a more optimistic stance for the purposes of the debate was Mpumi Zikalala, CEO of Kumba Iron Ore, who pointed to Africa’s undeniable resource advantage.

Youth dividend

“Africa has an endowment that everybody wants a piece of,” she said. “We hold around 40% of the world’s proven critical-mineral reserves beneath our feet. You can’t argue with that. The world is beating a path to our door—we just need to negotiate deals that work for us.”

Zikalala also highlighted Africa’s significant youth dividend, noting that while skills gaps remain, the continent’s young population can be trained to meet future development needs.

“Our young people will allow us to unlock the possibilities of the future,” she said. “There will be long-term demand for critical minerals, and young people can be trained to deliver on that demand.”

The third ‘G’: Governance

Offering a counterpoint—tongue firmly in cheek—was Gracelin Baskaran, Director for Critical Minerals Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“All three G’s must be in place,” she said. “It’s not just about geopolitics or geological endowment. Governance has to be right.”

She cited several African jurisdictions that have seen reduced global exploration activity due to concerns such as resource nationalism, double taxation and perceptions of instability.

Baskaran also underscored the importance of regional integration for efficient development.

“Everyone talks about local beneficiation,” she said. “But not every country can build a refinery. It makes more sense to develop regional facilities. Policy alignment makes that possible—and Africa still has work to do in that area.”

The battle for minerals

Also on the optimistic side was Brian Menell, Chairman and CEO of TechMet, who likened the current geopolitical landscape to a Cold War-era competition—this time centred on minerals.

“The key front today is control of resources,” Menell said. “The world needs more of what Africa has—for energy transition, robotics, drones and autonomous technologies. It also needs a young and resilient population, which positions Africa as a winner.”

Menell struck a confident note as the debate drew to a close.

“Ultimately, this is about investment and returns,” he said. “The US, Europe, Japan and other partners have committed to mobilising capital, de-risking investments and transforming global supply chains. That, without a doubt, secures Africa’s position as a winner.”

“Africa can be a winner,” Baskaran conceded with a smile, “so long as we build policy coherence.”

Wrapping up the session, Dhawan captured the broader mood of the debate and the conference.

“We may have spiced things up for entertainment,” he said, “but even amid geopolitical uncertainty, Africa still presents compelling opportunities.”