Gold may rebound above US$4,500 if global risks escalate – World Gold Council

Gold prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of 2026 despite a highly volatile first half of the year, with geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations and central bank demand likely to determine the precious metal’s next direction, according to the World Gold Council.

In its latest market outlook, the Council said gold experienced one of the most dramatic starts to any year, soaring to record highs in January before retreating sharply towards the end of June.

Gold climbed above an intraday high of US$5,500 per ounce in January before falling below US$4,000 per ounce in late June. Despite declining by about seven per cent since the beginning of the year, the metal remains among the world’s top-performing assets over the past 12 months.

According to the Council, the sharp price movements demonstrated gold’s continued sensitivity to geopolitical tensions and rapid shifts in investor sentiment. The report also highlighted the growing influence of Asian markets in determining global gold prices.

The Council noted that current gold prices broadly reflect expectations of moderate global economic growth, easing but still elevated inflation and limited additional monetary tightening by central banks.

Under those conditions, it expects gold prices to remain largely rangebound during the second half of the year, fluctuating within approximately five per cent of current levels.

However, the report said several factors could trigger another rally.

It identified a deterioration in global economic conditions, renewed geopolitical tensions, expectations of lower interest rates or strong investor demand during price dips as potential catalysts that could push gold prices back above US$4,500 per ounce, with the possibility of further gains if market signals strengthen.

Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic growth, rising bond yields and easing geopolitical uncertainty could place downward pressure on gold prices. Even so, the Council believes any decline of more than 10 per cent from current levels is likely to be limited by bargain-hunting investors.

The report also identified sustained purchases by central banks and policy developments in key gold-consuming markets, particularly India, as important factors that could influence prices during the remainder of 2026.

The World Gold Council said while gold’s near-term direction remains uncertain, the metal continues to benefit from its role as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.